House of Representatives may be zoned to Irepodun or Ekiti Local Government – Source
The declaration of Hon. Saheed Popoola for the Kwara South senatorial ticket under the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has dramatically shifted the political calculations in the district. His ambition, welcomed by some as a show of strength, has nonetheless unsettled other aspirants and reopened debates around zoning, loyalty, and the PDP’s electoral strategy for 2027.
Popoola’s Entry and Its Implications
Saheed Popoola is not a new name in Kwara politics. A grassroots mobilizer with a strong base in Offa, he has contested and held political office in the past, earning recognition for his political resilience. His decision to seek the PDP senatorial ticket has shaken the confidence of other aspirants, who until now were quietly building momentum toward 2027.
For the PDP in Kwara South, Popoola’s entry is both an opportunity and a challenge. On one hand, his popularity in Offa, a vote-rich local government, could boost the party’s chances at the general elections. On the other hand, his candidacy raises questions about zoning arrangements, past political allegiances, and the party’s ability to present a united front.
The Zoning Question
Amid the senatorial contest, reports suggest that the PDP is considering zoning the Senate ticket to the Ibolo axis, the second Local Government with the highest voting population after Ifelodun Local Government, the House of Representatives ticket to Ifelodun on one axis, and Irepodun or Ekiti Local Government on the other axis.
For many stakeholders, this is a balancing act aimed at ensuring inclusivity and assured victory across Kwara South.
But zoning itself remains controversial. Critics within the party argue that zoning has often produced compromise candidates who perform poorly in general elections. The PDP’s poor outings in 2019 and 2023, where unpopular candidates hidden behind zoning lost winnable contests, still linger in the minds of party faithful.
Others, however, insist that zoning is necessary to prevent domination by a single bloc and to keep the fragile alliances within the senatorial district intact. For them, disregarding zoning could risk disaffection and even defections, but could guarantee victory and perhaps being an opposition party that desperately needs victory again.
PDP’s Historical Struggles
The PDP in Kwara South has suffered painful losses in recent election cycles. In 2019 and 2023, the party’s insistence on zoning produced candidates who failed to inspire the electorate. Many grassroots members believe the defeats were less about external forces and more about internal miscalculations, poor candidate choices, and the refusal to allow the strongest aspirants to fly the flag.
This history looms large over the 2027 contest. For many PDP members, the question is no longer just “whose turn” it is, but “who can win.”
Popoola vs. the Field
With Popoola in the race, other aspirants such as Prof Muritala Awodun, Chief Joseph Obanla, Chief Anu Ibiwoye and Amb. Temitayo face a tougher battle for the party ticket. While each commands support in their respective strongholds, Popoola’s wider recognition and Offa backing may give him an edge, also with the sharp divisions within the PDP in Irepodun Local Government on whom to support amongst the four aspirants from the Local Government.
Still, Popoola faces skepticism. Some party members question his loyalty, pointing to his history of political movement across parties. Others worry that his candidacy could unsettle existing understandings within PDP and spark internal rebellion if not carefully managed.
The Road to 2027: Merit or Rotation?
As 2027 approaches, the PDP in Kwara South stands at a crossroads. The party must decide whether to cling to zoning formulas that have previously produced weak outcomes or to embrace merit-based competition where the most popular, strategic, and prepared candidate emerges.
For the House of Representatives, it is the same fate. On the first axis of Ifelodun/Oyun/Offa axis, the three aspirants being Hon Lawal Bullet, Hon Ojomu and Hon Moshood Bakare are well positioned for the ticket, all from the most populated Local Government; Ifelodun Local Government.
On the other axis of Irepodun/Ekiti/Isin/Oke Ero Federal Constituency, A lawyer and Omu aran born Philanthropist; Barrister Joseph Titilope Akogun, Erstwhile Agriculture Commissioner; Hon Goke Bamidele, Hon Harry Ilori and Ambassador Solomon Alabi, who was the Isin House of Assembly candidate in 2023, are well positioned to battle for the ticket.
What is clear is that every political party exists to win elections, not to indulge in empty rhetoric. If the PDP hopes to reclaim lost ground in Kwara South, it must learn from its mistakes in 2019 and 2023, and present candidates who can win at the general elections.
Saheed Popoola’s senatorial ambition has already unsettled the political terrain in Kwara South. But beyond personalities, the larger question remains: will the PDP rise above zoning politics and field its strongest contenders, or will it repeat the cycle of internal compromise and external defeat?
The answer may well determine not just the fate of the party in 2027, but also the political direction of Kwara South for years to come.
Kola Oluwagbemi writes from Offa.
